Council Member Phill Carter · Personal Research & Advocacy

Reimagining Sebastopol's
downtown core.

A council member's exploration of converting Sebastopol's one-way couplet to two-way — and what that could mean for downtown vitality, safety, and the next 30 years.

These are the personal research and policy perspectives of Council Member Phill Carter, shared to support community dialogue. They do not represent official City positions. The underlying engineering study is being conducted by Fehr & Peers under a Caltrans Sustainable Transportation Grant.

Phill Carter · Council Member, City of Sebastopol
Downtown Planning · 2025

Five stats. Consistent across 20+ cities.

31%
Speed reduction after conversion
Perth, AU · Birmingham, AL
39%
Property value increase on converted streets
Louisville, KY Brook St · PVA Records
Property tax revenue per block vs. one-way
Center for Sustainable Urban Neighborhoods, Louisville
10–13%
Annual retail sales growth post-conversion
Dana Point CA · Missoula MT
16%
VMT reduction per trip
JPER · Perth two-way study

The Situation

One street design. Two very different outcomes.

Sebastopol's one-way couplet was a deliberate engineering choice — and it solved the problem it was designed to solve. The question now is whether that problem is still the right problem to be solving.

What the current system was built for

The one-way couplet on Main St and Petaluma Ave was engineered to move vehicles through downtown as fast as possible. Peak-hour throughput. Minimum signal delays. That design prioritized the 7-in-10 drivers who were just passing through — not stopping, just getting from one end to the other.

What a two-way conversion is designed to do

Two-way streets redesign the same pavement for the 1-in-10 who actually want to be downtown — a customer heading to a shop, a family walking to a restaurant. Speed drops, visibility improves, and businesses become accessible from both directions. The data across 20+ cities is consistent: retail sales go up, property values go up, accidents go down.

Historical Context

One-way couplets: a mid-century idea we're ready to rethink

Sebastopol's one-way street system isn't an accident of geography — it was a deliberate design choice from a specific era of transportation thinking. Understanding that history explains why so many cities are now reversing course.

1940s – 1970s

The era that built one-way couplets

Following World War II, American cities faced a new problem: postwar automobile ownership was exploding, and existing street grids weren't built for the volume. The dominant planning response — championed by traffic engineers and the emerging Interstate highway system — was to maximize throughput. One-way couplets were a key tool: by separating opposing traffic onto parallel streets, engineers could eliminate left-turn conflicts, synchronize signals for continuous "green waves," and move more cars per hour at higher speeds. Hundreds of American downtowns were reconfigured this way between roughly 1950 and 1975.

The unintended consequences

What the traffic engineers didn't model

The throughput gains were real — but so were the costs that weren't counted. Stores became invisible to half the passing traffic. Pedestrian crossings grew longer and more dangerous as speeds increased. Drivers who missed their destination had to circle an entire block. Property values on converted streets stagnated or fell relative to comparable two-way corridors. By the 1990s, cities that had converted in the '60s were quietly converting back — and finding that the economic gains were substantial and consistent.

How It Actually Works

The traffic logic behind the conversion

The most common objection to conversion is "won't traffic get worse?" The consistent finding across converted cities is: no. Here's the logic.

Main St — for destinations
  • Two-way, slower speeds
  • Businesses visible from both directions
  • No more forced circling
  • Social promenade on west side
Petaluma Ave — natural bypass
  • Handles pass-through traffic
  • Cleaner routing for commuters
  • Separates destination and through trips
  • Both user groups win
Does the math work?

Yes — and it's been studied extensively

Urban transportation planning calls this functional classification: different road types serve different trip purposes. When a one-way couplet is converted, traffic doesn't disappear — it redistributes. The key finding from Dana Point, Louisville, Savannah, and Vancouver is that the volume feared to "back up" on local roads actually disperses more efficiently across a two-way network. Shorter circling routes mean fewer total vehicle-miles traveled.

The Sebastopol case

7:1 ratio is the key insight

Travel data shows roughly 7 vehicles pass through downtown for every 1 trying to reach a downtown destination. The current one-way couplet was designed for those 7. The conversion redesigns the street for the 1 — and routes the 7 more efficiently onto Petaluma Ave, which can serve as a natural bypass corridor. Both user groups win: commuters get a cleaner route, and shoppers get a slower, more accessible Main Street.

The promenade connection

Freed space → social infrastructure

Once through-traffic shifts to Petaluma Ave, the west side of Main Street can be reclaimed. Council Member Carter is proposing this space become a social promenade — not just a bike lane, but a linear civic space: wide enough for slow cycling, walking, outdoor dining, and spontaneous gathering. This is the model that transformed streets in European cities and increasingly in California downtowns like Dana Point.

Safety data

Slower speeds change accident outcomes

The 31% average speed reduction documented across converted cities isn't just comfort — it's survival. A pedestrian struck at 30 mph has roughly a 20% fatality risk. At 20 mph, it drops to around 5%. And the counterintuitive finding in the Louisville study is that as downtown traffic volumes increased after conversion, accidents decreased — because the streets were designed for interaction, not throughput.

Case Studies

What actually happened in other cities

These aren't projections. These are documented outcomes from cities that made this conversion. Small towns highlighted in green — they're the most comparable to Sebastopol's scale.

Dana Point, CA
California · Coastal · Highway conversion
$21M

10–13% annual sales growth. 192,000 sf new retail now supportable. PCH converted to 4 lanes (2+2). Zero net capacity loss. Now a 2028 Olympics sailing destination.

Vancouver, WA
Small Town · Broadway & Main conversion
N/A

10–20% sales growth. "Coming back to life almost overnight." Significant increase in pedestrian activity and business investment.

Louisville, KY
Small City · Brook St & 1st St · Control study
$250K

39% property value increase on converted Brook St. 2× property tax revenue vs. nearby one-way blocks. Accidents decreased even as traffic volume increased.

Lubbock, TX
Small Town · Main St & 10th St
$50K

Growth after years of decline. "Thriving — experiencing growth." One of the lowest-cost conversions with documented commercial revival.

Lafayette, IN
Small Town · Main Street
N/A

Business traffic actually picked up after conversion — counter to fears expressed before the project. A case study in pre-project concerns not materializing.

Newport, OR
Small Town · Feasibility Study
$2.7M

Economic revitalization and additional pedestrian activity documented. Promotes private reinvestment framework — public investment catalyzing private spending.

Savannah, GA
Historic Core · East Broad St
N/A

Regained most of the 2/3 of taxpaying addresses lost during the one-way era. The conversion reversed decades of fiscal damage to the city's tax base.

West Palm Beach, FL
Mid-Size City · Clematis St
N/A

Dramatic increase in new retail shops, restaurants, and property values. One of the earliest large-city examples to be widely cited in planning literature.

Toledo, OH
Mid-Size City · 3 streets
N/A

Vacant buildings occupied. "Totally turned the center city around." Often cited as the conversion that shifted professional planning consensus.

Des Moines, IA
Mid-Size City · Court & Walnut
N/A

2.08% job growth above citywide rate. Part of SDSU context-sensitive framework study examining outcomes across 6 converted cities.

Kalamazoo, MI
Mid-Size City · Proposed
Proposed

$20.6M annual sales increase projected. 36,000 sf new retail supportable. 16,000 sf new restaurant space. Model used for Sebastopol projections.

Honest Assessment

Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats

This isn't a slam dunk. There are real tradeoffs. Here's a frank accounting of where the conversion is strong, where it's vulnerable, and what has to go right for it to work.

S Strengths
  • Speed calming — 35–40 mph → 20–25 mph documented
  • Retail visible from both directions, doubling exposure
  • 39% property value increase on converted streets (Louisville)
  • 16% VMT reduction per trip — direct climate benefit
  • Proven in 20+ cities with consistent outcomes
  • Low cost relative to impact ($250K–$21M range)
  • Supports west-side Main St social promenade (Alt. 5)
  • Reduces forced circling — more direct access for all users
W Weaknesses
  • Construction disruption — temporary service impacts
  • Signal retiming required across couplet
  • Driver adjustment period — new routing habits take time
  • Some Level of Service reduction at peak hours
  • Delivery vehicle access may need coordination
  • Requires careful phasing to minimize business impact
O Opportunities
  • EIFD property tax increment capture — conversion self-funds
  • Property values up → broader tax base for city services
  • West County Trail connection creates regional draw
  • Caltrans Sustainable Transportation Grant already active
  • Fehr & Peers Reimagining the Core study provides foundation
  • 2028 Olympics visibility — Dana Point model
  • Aligns with state Complete Streets policy direction
  • Downtown vitality supports Economic Gardening initiative
T Threats
  • Merchant opposition during construction period
  • Caltrans jurisdiction on Hwy 116/12 requires state approval
  • Political timing — council transitions during long process
  • Cost escalation if project delayed (12.5%/yr construction inflation)
  • Community fatigue from prior studies without action
  • Funding gap if EIFD or grant timing misaligns

The Plan

Alternative 5 — Modal Separation

A four-part framework for a safer, more productive, more connected downtown Sebastopol — advocated by Council Member Phill Carter as the direction for deeper engineering study by Fehr & Peers.

1

Two-Way Conversion

  • Petaluma Ave + Main St: bidirectional
  • Speeds slow — businesses visible both ways
  • No more forced circling around blocks
  • Direct access to destinations
2

West-Side Main St Social Promenade

  • A linear social space on the west side of Main St
  • Space to linger, meet neighbors, support nearby businesses
  • Outdoor dining, seating, and gathering
  • Makes downtown a destination, not just a corridor
3

Pedestrian Realm

  • Wider sidewalks + improved crossings
  • Space for outdoor dining and gathering
  • Accessible, comfortable downtown environment
  • Street trees, seating, place-making elements
4

Trail Network Connection

  • Links to West County Trail
  • Protected bike infrastructure through downtown
  • Connects residential neighborhoods to downtown businesses
  • Regional trail-to-downtown access

California Blueprint

Dana Point Lantern District

Same challenge as Sebastopol: a state-built one-way couplet prioritized regional throughput and fragmented a downtown. Here's what they did — and what happened.

Engineering PCH converted to 4 lanes (2+2 split). Del Prado Avenue became a 2-lane collector. Same total capacity — entirely different character.
Capacity 6 total lanes maintained. Zero net capacity loss. The "we can't lose throughput" objection was answered directly in the design.
Cost savings $3M saved through value engineering. Sidewalks preserved at 8 ft minimum in front of all businesses. The project demonstrated fiscal discipline.
California law Navigated Coastal Act, CEQA, and multiple Coastal Development Permits. Complex California regulatory environment — and it got done.
Timeline 2008 plan → construction → opening → now a 2028 Olympics sailing venue. Long arc, but it happened.
$21M+ Public infrastructure invested
6 lanes Maintained — zero capacity loss
10–13% Annual retail sales growth
192K sf New retail space now supportable
2028 Olympics sailing destination — Lantern District is the backdrop

Fiscal Logic

How conversion pays for itself

Property value increases aren't just a livability metric — they generate the tax increment that funds the investment. This is the self-reinforcing logic that makes conversion attractive fiscally, not just urbanistically.

39%

Property value increase on converted streets. One-way street blocks declined in value over the same period.

University of Louisville / Property Valuation Administration records

Property tax revenue per block on two-way streets vs. comparable one-way blocks in the same neighborhood.

Center for Sustainable Urban Neighborhoods, Louisville

EIFD

Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District captures property tax increment from rising values — directly funding the infrastructure that created them. Already under discussion for West County corridor.

California EIFD statute · AB 229 / SB 628

$1M+

Estimated annual property tax revenue left on the table in Louisville by maintaining multi-lane one-way streets. Sebastopol's scale is smaller — but the ratio holds.

Gilderbloom & Riggs · Planetizen / University of Louisville

Full Record

Documented outcomes — all 20+ cities

Green = Small Town · Gold = California · Highlighted = Sebastopol. Sources: SDSU / Riggs & Appleyard, Dana Point EIR, Strong Towns, ResearchGate, City studies.

City Type Est. Cost Outcomes
Dana Point, CA California $21M 10–13% annual retail sales growth · 192K sf new retail supportable · 2028 Olympics venue · zero capacity loss
Vancouver, WA Small Town N/A 10–20% sales growth · "coming back to life almost overnight" · significant private reinvestment
Louisville, KY Small City $250K 39% property value increase · 2× property tax/block · traffic accidents ↓ even as volume increased
Lubbock, TX Small Town $50K Growth after years of decline · businesses thriving · one of lowest-cost conversions with documented commercial revival
Newport, OR Small Town $2.7M Economic revitalization + pedestrian activity · promotes private reinvestment framework
Savannah, GA Historic Core N/A Regained 2/3 taxpaying addresses lost in one-way era after 2012 reconversion
West Palm Beach, FL Mid-Size City N/A Dramatic ↑ in new retail shops, restaurants, and property values
Toledo, OH Mid-Size City N/A Vacant buildings occupied · "totally turned the center city around"
Lafayette, IN Small Town N/A Business traffic picked up after conversion — counter to pre-project fears
Missoula, MT Small City N/A 10–13% short-term retail benefit expected · part of national pattern analysis
Kalamazoo, MI Mid-Size City Proposed $20.6M annual sales increase projected · 36K sf new retail · 16K sf new restaurant space supportable
Birmingham, AL Mid-Size City N/A Speed friction ↓ · revived downtown efficiency · simulation-based study
Perth, AU International N/A 31% speed reduction · easier navigation for residents and businesses
Durham, NC Mid-Size City $12M Planned ↑ for pedestrians, cyclists, and businesses · RAISE grant funded
Des Moines, IA Mid-Size City N/A 2.08% job growth above citywide rate · part of SDSU 6-city economic study
Sebastopol, CA ★ Our City TBD Associated with higher retail activity + downtown vitality · Caltrans grant funded · Reimagining the Core study 2025–2026

Green = Small Town · Gold = California · Highlighted = Sebastopol

Do Your Own Research

Primary sources & further reading

The case for two-way conversion is well-documented in transportation literature spanning 30+ years. Here are 20 sources behind this analysis — and search terms to find more.

Suggested search terms — start here

"one-way to two-way conversion" case studies downtown "one-way couplet" "two-way" history economics "street conversion" "property values" "retail sales" study Dana Point "Lantern District" conversion before after Louisville "one-way to two-way" "Brook Street" economics

Add NCHRP, ITE Journal, Transportation Research Record, Strong Towns, NACTO to find peer-reviewed and practitioner sources.

Academic Overview
UNC — The State of the Debate: Two-Way Street Conversion

Accessible academic summary of the arguments for and against conversion. Good starting point for understanding the full range of professional opinion.

Academic / Traffic Engineering
NACTO — One-Way to Two-Way Conversion in Downtown Birmingham (PDF)

Peer-reviewed study analyzing traffic operations, safety, and circulation outcomes after Birmingham's downtown couplet conversion.

Academic / Economics
SDSU — Economic Impact of One-to-Two-Way Street Conversions (PDF)

Rigorous economic analysis by William Riggs advancing a context-sensitive framework. The source for most of the retail sales and property value data cited here.

Academic / Safety & Economics
University of Chicago — One-Way or Two-Way? Accidents, Property Values, and Crime

UChicago research documenting that two-way conversions simultaneously increase traffic, decrease accidents, raise property values, and reduce crime.

Practitioner / NACTO
NACTO — Are We Strangling Ourselves on One-Way Networks? (PDF)

Jarrett Walker's influential NACTO paper arguing that one-way systems constrain network efficiency and harm the places they pass through.

Policy Advocacy
Strong Towns — 3 Reasons to Turn One-Way Streets into Two-Ways

Strong Towns makes the financial productivity and community vitality case for conversion in plain language. Widely shared in planning circles.

Counterpoint
Thoreau Institute — Should Cities Convert One-Way Streets to Two-Way?

A skeptical take from a free-market transportation perspective. Worth reading to understand the strongest counterarguments and how they've been addressed in practice.

City Case / Kentucky
Preservation Kentucky — East Breckinridge Case Study (PDF)

Detailed before-and-after case study from Louisville examining pedestrian safety, property values, and business activity on a converted corridor.

California Blueprint / Official
City of Dana Point — Lantern District / Town Center (Official)

Dana Point's official planning page. Same California regulatory environment as Sebastopol — Caltrans, CEQA, Coastal Act.

Sebastopol / Official Study
Fehr & Peers — Reimagining the Core (Official Study)

The official Caltrans-funded engineering study currently underway in Sebastopol. Community input is open — add your voice.

Sebastopol / City
City of Sebastopol — Caltrans Sustainable Transportation Grant Page

Official city page on the grant funding the Reimagining the Core study. Background, timeline, and how to participate.